Friday, August 29, 2014

DAX supply/demand

A quick preview of something that I am working on. I'm developing a supply/demand indicator. Actually, this is something that I have attempted in the past, but was never totally satisfied with the results. However, at last I am making some progress with this - and the generated levels seem good, especially when used in conjunction with other levels such as high/low/mid, Initial Balance levels, etc.

There's a lot of work to do on this, but it looks like it will be a promising indicator in time.

Well, this indicator is new, and still in development, but an opportunity came up that met risk:reward criteria, so I took it. Not a text-book entry, but still good for 23 pips.

Tuesday, August 19, 2014

Major markets, gold, oil, etc. for August

Here's August comparison so far. Despite a couple of big draw-downs (both on Russia / Ukraine news), US equities posting big gains in August. DAX and Nikkei both slumped earlier on, but now more or less recovered.

Currency Strength Meter 19/8/2014

USD remains strongest; GBP and NZD weakest.

Friday, August 15, 2014

Currency Strength Meter

I just uploaded a short video about my Currency Strength Meter. It shows the basic usage. I'm using a new video capture and editing tool here, so I hope it is ok. It is recommended to open in a separate window and use highest quality setting when viewing on YouTube (e.g. 720p HD).

I May Be Bullish, But I'm Not Foolish

Ukraine v Russia ! Major move in the markets

Couldn't have timed it better. With the global equity markets generally up and possibly due a pull-back, this news out of the blue was the trigger for a 1% drop in DAX today.

Thursday, August 14, 2014

What happened to oil today?

I don't trade oil, so I wasn't watching it, but just noticed it was down 2% today.

Here's how August looks half-way into the month.

PS: Saw this article about oil today. Despite trouble in the Middle East, over-supply seems to be the problem.

Wednesday, August 13, 2014

DAX trades today

DAX opened with a nice gap up, but didn't present any good entries. I tried to enter on pull-back to VWAP & mid, but didn't get a fill. I tried again later, with pull-back to confluence of VWAP, mid, R1 and IBHX2 !

The market chopped around and I ended up scaling the position and a bit of scalping. S&P opened at 14h30 UK time and was slow, choppy and slightly bearish, but eventually it did pop and I managed to squeeze another long onto the DAX.

Session Lines indicator wins again!

Friday, August 8, 2014

DAX intraday levels with Session Lines indicator

This chart really shows the power of the Session Lines indicator (I'm also using Gap Fix indicator here to highlight the opening gap).

Context: very bearish week, with large drops across the equity indices. Today opened gap-down, out of yesterday's range. I posted this morning about the gap, posing the question "was it a novice gap or accelerating down-trend?" - well, we got the answer now, look at the rally we had today!

The Session Lines indicator tracks key intraday levels, such as the high, low, mid, VWAP, open, close prices, but also the floor pivots, Initial Balance (1st hour of trading) and a few other things too. Today's chart really shows how well price reacted at these levels, and also how well the old adage "resistance becomes support" goes.

The day started fairly balanced (price action both sides of mid and VWAP). The Initial Balance Low was broken by a few pips around 8:30 London time (actually this was also only a few pips from March 14th low). This low held for the day, and price rallied from here, breaking the IBH but finding resistance at the IBH 150% extension, back to the mid & VWAP for support, and then up again. Several key levels were tested throughout the day, some were broken, some held. After the Europe close, the daily pivot can be calculated (normally only used for Monday's trade, but it often has strength in the "after hours trading"), this was key support from which a large rally (mirroring the US markets) pushed the DAX through the high of the day, tagging R1 and then finally coming to rest at the previous mid.

The Session Lines levels really are key levels for intraday trading, and serve equally well as potential entries or exits (scales). Remember, when one level is taken out the next level is often the next target; if a level holds, then often the market will reverse direction and head for the next opposing level; remember support becomes resistance (and vice versa).

You can find out more about the Session Lines indicator here.

Globex 1890 Low - Can It Hold?

Equities rally into the close

Led by the US, the equity indices rallied into the close, just getting back into positive territory for the week, after some serious bearishness earlier.

Renewed fighting in Gaza, Russia and Ukraine, EU and Russia sanctions on each other... stocks go up.

Overnight gap-down

US equities gapped-down early in Asian session, with DAX following suit on the open too. We've not had a gap-down like this for a while (i.e. a gap down out of range in direction of trend). Is this a novice gap, or is the downwards move accelerating?

Wednesday, August 6, 2014

S&P500 today's chart

S&P fell further overnight. However, the inventory was "too short", and on the open all those weak shorts' buy stops were too tempting for the algos and big boys. The S&P rallied right off the open, and chewed its way through the close, POC, mid, LVN (between the 2 distributions of yesterday's profile) finally tagging the HVN of the upper distribution of yesterday's profile. Prices fell from here back to the mid.

Tuesday, August 5, 2014

Currency Strength Meter 5/8/2014

Latest Currency Strength Meter chart. Good PMI from UK and US. Euro really suffering

S&P500 slips further

S&P opened in yesterday's range, and traded in a narrow range all morning. The S&P failed to trade above yesterday's Point Of Control (POC). This is a clear sign of weakness. On the next rotation, the S&P failed to make it pas the mid, and this led to a sell-off to new lows.

Friday, August 1, 2014

RANsquawk - Weekly Wrap 1st August 2014

End of week charts

Equities took a big dive this week, especially the DAX which is down 4.8% on the week. S&P500 fell in the over-night, but found support, and kind of held up. On the currencies, the GBP took a real hammering. USD remains strong, but did fall back a little.

(The Multi-Compare and Currency Strength Meter indicators are available on from this blog or on FXCM Apps).

Stocks down, but look at the big picture

Despite the recent losses, the S&P is still up over 4% on the year.

Bad day for DAX, down nearly 2% since the open