Wednesday, July 30, 2014

High Anxiety In The S&P

The S&P, The Vix, and the FED

USD soars on better than expected GDP data

USD soars on better than expected GDP data. Good news for the $, bad news for stocks since it brings the zero-rate cash closer to an end.

DAX trade

A number of clues enticed me to go long today: Weak double-top, demand seen, confluence of POC, open price and daily pivot. First scale to cover stop, 2nd scale at the high of day, 1 lot runner remaining.

Currency Strength Meter

US Dollar looking strong mid-weak. GBP/USD falls to fresh lows with room for further declines. Don't forget it's FOMC today and NFP on Friday!

Tuesday, July 29, 2014

DAX trades

Mixed morning, with some losses and some wins. More than compensated for by the trade just after 15h00 (UK) that is 30min after US open, which is a common reversal time for US market.

The S&P500 had broken it's overnight high, but with no real follow-through and at R1 and at this 15h00 reversal time. I shorted DAX here, targeting the VWAP, mid, IBH confluence area, for 56 pips.

GBP/USD approaching stops

I posted about these stops last week. Well, cable made it down there. We'll see now if it takes them, and how far price will be pushed lower. US July Consumer Confidence at 15:00 UK time, this could be the trigger to take the stops out. Very thin profile below, so could get interesting.

Friday, July 25, 2014

Major markets and currency strength for the end of week

A bit more action in the markets and currencies this week, thanks to geo-political situations and some improved jobless claims number from US.

Major markets, gold, oil, US Dollar, etc. % change for the week...

Major markets, gold, oil, US Dollar, etc. % change for Friday...

Currency Strength Meter...

(Multi-Compare indicator and Currency Strength Meter are available from this blog or FXCM Apps site.)

FTSE100 scalps

UK GDP was good, price peaked at the announcement, pulled-back and then struggled to get higher. I shorted. Was hoping for a drop back to the open, but didn't get it.

Thursday, July 24, 2014

Currency Strength Meter

Today's view of the Currency Strength Meter...

NZD/USD continues slide lower

The Kiwi weakened further against the USD, eventually finding some support at a High Volume Node (HVN). Could it find a bounce here, or slump lower?

GBP/USD 1.7 level broken without much of a fight

The key 1.7 level did not offer much support when USD surged on good unemployment numbers today. The level was broken, and GBP/USD eventually found some support in the prominent High Volume Node beneath.

Wednesday, July 9, 2014

Mid-week look at Currency Strength and Major Markets

I'm on vacation this week and next, so entries in my blog will be rather thin. Looks like there are some good trading opportunities around as we enter the earnings season again.

Here's the Currency Strength Meter chart...

Here's a look at the major market indices, oil, gold, etc...

Friday, July 4, 2014

RANsquawk Weekly Wrap - 4th July 2014

Major markets and commodities

Here's where we are at the end of another week..

July 4th = slow markets

Even in slow markets (perhaps especially in slow markets), the market tends to respect price levels. Here we see DAX in narrow range since US is closed today and there is little news to drive the markets. The price looks like it is breaking out of a narrow range... but this is a fake. Buyers enter on the Initial Balance Low 200% extension - to the pip.

Risk:reward wasn't really worth it for a trade. Just saying.

You can see from the profile, that this should be a quiet day, I have other things to occupy my time.

Session Lines indicators tracks all kinds of key levels for active day trading (e.g. high, low, mid, VWAP, Initial Balance, Initial Balance Extensions, Floor trader pivots, etc.).

Thursday, July 3, 2014

NFP + ECB and Draghi on the same day!

US NFP figures out today due to the short week in US. Coincides with the ECB rate announcement and Draghi press conference. So what kind of action can these cause?

Here's the Currency Strength chart.

Here's EUR/USD. Monday's rally all erased, it now languishes back at the High Volume Node.

Here's the GBP/USD. Yesterday's low was support, but failed to move higher. This candle is a "hanging man". The thin tail on the Candle Profile is indicative of rejection, but the failure to move higher is also significant.  "Hanging man" at top of trend is generally bearish. However, given the overall strength of GBP I think this will be short term only.

Resistance becomes support, etc.

The chart below shows 5-week composite profile on the left hand side. The high-lighted area is a High Volume Node (HVN) - also happens to be the Point Of Control (POC) for this profile. Yesterday it was resistance and price failed to get above it (in fact was rejected from the level).

Today, price broke through and this level now becomes support. Notice how it is now a Low Volume Node (LVN) on today's profile. Previous HVNs that become LVNs are very key levels.

Just managed some scalps today. NFP + Draghi at the same time is too much of a fiery combination for me.

European stocks rally ahead of ECB, Drahgi and US NFP

Holiday week in US due to 4th July, so US will be quiet ... which means low liquidity... which means plenty of chance for algos and big boys to push the price around and run stops.

Tuesday, July 1, 2014

DAX trades today

Balanced market today, slight range extension. I should have been trading it like that, i.e. buying the marked blue zone and selling the marked red zone. Fear of losing kept me out of those trades, since I still think there is good chance for higher highs and for lower lows! In the end I was left to scalping inside the range, and therefore profit potential was greatly reduced.

USD dragging the bottom

USD continues its weakness, and is dragging the bottom of the RSI over-sold level.